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Will the euro fight back continue?

After a quiet night in the Foreign Exchange markets in Asian trading, the markets opened today with some sell pressure on the pound particularly against the USD. The pound slipped from a touch over 1.48 down to 1.4760. This could be attributed to weaker consumer confidence data released last night- the May index fell sharply by 10 points from April to 65.

However the prospect of another Mervyn King speech tonight at Mansion House could be more on the button, spooking the sterling bulls. In the recent past, whenever Mervyn king has made a public address sterling has always suffered due to his negative but admittedly realistic sentiment on the UK economy. Data already released this morning focused on the UK jobless sector, the data was actually not too bad with May jobless claims in at -30,900 better than the forecasted -20,000. In addition the claimant count rate came in at 4.6% and the unemployment rate at 7.9%, again slightly better than forecasts at 4.7% and 8% respectively. A muted response to this morning’s data for the pound as the market is well aware that unemployment levels should suffer following the emergency budget next week. Look for the pound to remain subdued today ahead of Mr. Kings address later- in fact I would not expect any significant movement in the pound until after Tuesday’s budget.

The surprise in the international markets is the recent fight back of the euro which pushed to 1.2353 yesterday against the USD. This is despite further pressure in the bond markets- this morning we have seen the Spanish/German 10 year government bond yield widen to 218bps, this is a lifetime high and Portuguese/German equivalent widened to 312bps. The move higher for the euro despite the negatives looks reflective of a short squeeze in the markets to shake up what was a market biased on shorting the euro. This is a relief rally for international payments and transfers which I would not expect to be sustained especially if the bond markets continue to deteriorate. On top of this there is also news of disagreement to stress testing of the European banking sector with Spain in favour and Germany against, which raises the question why are the Germans so against the idea?

The USD has unwound some of its recent gains following a week with little excitement (like the World Cup so far) and no huge surprises leading to gradual appetite coming back into the frame. Later today from the US, the pick of which is the Producer Price Index, Industrial production and a speech from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

Keep an eye on the Forex with an online currency converter till the budget.

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Posted on July 20th, 2010 by supervisor

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